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The Ming Fell Only Once: Authoritarian Learning and the Small N Problem
Wang, Yuhua
Wang, Yuhua
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36.4.5 Wang Final.pdf
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Abstract
Taisu Zhang’s Ideological Foundations of Qing Taxation offers a nuanced perspective on how Confucian conservatism and the trauma of the Ming Dynasty’s collapse shaped Qing fiscal policies, constraining modernization efforts and contributing to China’s economic divergence from Western Europe. Zhang’s work highlights a critical challenge for authoritarian regimes: the “small N” problem. Unlike democracies, which can iteratively learn from a wealth of electoral outcomes, authoritarian regimes must derive lessons from a limited number of collapses, making generalization difficult. This paper explores the implications of Zhang’s analysis for authoritarian learning, employing a Bayesian framework to argue that constrained datasets hinder effective adaptation. It concludes with reflections on contemporary China, which seeks lessons from the Soviet Union’s collapse—a unique event whose relevance to China’s present challenges may be overstated.